28th and dropping fast! Why a 29th place finish is now likely for the Ottawa Senators.

New Jersey is now tied with Ottawa for 27th place, with more wins. Under tiebreaker rules that places Ottawa in 28th place if the season ended today.   Given that New Jersey is playing very good hockey and has received 16 points out of a possible 20 in it’s last ten games Ottawa fans should wave goodbye as the Devils climb up the ladder.  If they keep the pace up they may reach 90 points this season, and bizarrely might actually qualify for the last playoff spot in a weak Eastern Conference.

Given their season averages, Ottawa and the Islanders are headed for a tie with 65 points.  However, if you look at the last ten games, it tells a different story.   The New York Islanders are if nothing consistent losers, their 4-6-0 pace matches their season average exactly,  given that 65 points seems exactly where they are headed.

The Ottawa Senators have managed a measly four points in their last ten games.  If they continue their current pace,  they will end up with a mere 54 points.   Only Edmonton has a worse record in the last ten games.  While their season average would give them 60 points,  their recent performance would give them a pathetic 47 points and the worst record in the league.

So let’s split the difference for all four teams,  take their season-wide projection and the projection given their last ten games, and split down the middle.

New Jersey:   (65 + 89) /2 =   77

Islanders:       (65 + 65) /2 =  65

Ottawa:            (65 + 54) /2  = 60*

Edmonton:     (60 + 47) /2 = 54*

*rounded up.

Unless Edmonton goes on a tear, 29th place looks increasingly likely. Given draft lottery odds, this means that the Ottawa Senators at 29th will have a 100% chance of picking first, second or third, with  a 40% chance of picking third, a 42% chance of picking second, and a 18% chance of  picking first overall.

So, let’s look at those draft picks once again.  It looks like Edmonton is hungry for a young D, so it looks like Adam Larsson will be their pick if they don’t lose their lottery position. The most Ottawa can drop is one.

1
Adam Larsson

Ht/Wt:6.02/200 lbs
Position:D
Team: Skelleftea AIK (Swe)

2

Gabriel Landeskog
Ht/Wt:6.00/207
Position:LW
Team: Kitchener (OHL)

3 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Ht/Wt:6.00/170 lbs
Position:C
Team: Red Deer (WHL)

4 Sean Couturier
Ht/Wt:6.04/195 lbs
Position:C
Team: Drummondville (QMJHL)

Given the Senators lack of, well, everything regarding scoring,  even dropping one spot and losing out on Gabriel Landeskog isn’t bad.

If that happens, and Edmonton stays first,  would Ottawa be willing to trade one of it’s defensive prospects to Edmonton to guarantee a move up the ladder?  And which one? Given that the other teams that could claim second pick in the lottery are all likely to pick a forward, wouldn’t this be  prudent for both teams as Ottawa would guarantee it’s choice and Edmonton would get more defensive depth?

 

Avoiding Flailure

I’ve started or been an early hire in several high tech companies, and now work for a big one.  Some succeeded (if you define success as reacquisition or IPO so someone else can fuck it up).  Some failed.  All had one thing in common: Avoiding the deathmarch, or if on it,  ending it and fast.

Few get everything right in the beginning.  The smart ones change course when they sense they are going down the wrong path.  Change requires innovation.  There is one small problem however,  summarized by this axiom:

Innovation is inversely proportional to organizational strength.

Organizational strength increases over time.

New companies and larger companies that have successfully survived a near-death experience (hello, Apple) can innovate.  Newer companies have little organizational strength, so change is easy.  Larger companies can only do this by purging themselves of existing organizational strength, and to do so radically.  In other words, they  must change their executives, discard, isolate or encapsulate the current organization, and reboot.

Apple, at one time,  needed a US$150 million investment from Microsoft to make payroll and survive.   The giant today is a result of a reboot in technology and mindset (OS9?  Power PC?) .  For larger companies the situation has to be this extreme,  as only a true rebirth allows for a return to real innovation.  Half measures don’t count.  Half-measures result in flailure, in other words,  being good enough, but no better, and in reality getting worse.

If you haven’t heard of flailure,  here’s a definition.

flailure: (noun): misfortune that occurs because of clumsiness; an accident that includes a wild flailing of limbs.

What does this have to do with hockey?  Well, everything.

The Senators have been in flailure state for a while now.  Doesn’t matter who’s fault it is.  Too many favorites.  Too many empires.  The only way forward is to take the great leap into rebirth.   This, of course, means that everything must be on the table,  from management to player personnel to expectations of the fans and the media.

Such a decision can only come from ownership.  The fans seem ready,  some media (not Sun media) are there,  it appears some players are there,  as is some management.   Is the team ready, willing and able for a rebirth,  or will it continue to sadly march along in seemingly endless flailure?

 

Let The Rebuild Begin

Bryan Murray at today’s presser.

” I feel for the fans.”

“If we continue to drop games going forward, there are a lot of players I will consider moving.”

On “The Euge” – “He’s realistic.“

Murray added that he’s considering bringing up Robin Lehner. Given the way the Senators are playing, you might as well start with him.

It’s also clear that he’s gone as GM at the end of the season.

The rest was valedictory. He mentioned that when he came on as a GM the organization was short in depth and their drafts were not up to scratch.  They’ve done a good job in the last few years of selecting people in the draft for the future.

Robin Lehner will play in Bingo for the weekend and then he may be brought up if things don’t go well between the pipes.

He’s not yet at the “blow it up” stage, at least publicly.  But it seems that the Senators are already in transition towards a total rebuild with a new GM and a new head coach.

Could both roles be filled by St. Michael’s Majors head coach and GM Dave Cameron, who has done a brilliant job coaching Team Canada at the World Juniors?

Since Cameron already works for “The Euge”,  why not?

 

 

All Aboard The Draft Lottery Express!

Ottawa is in 25th place with other teams having games in hand. At this pace the Senators will have a lottery pick at the 2011 draft, giving them an outside chance at the number one pick.

Let’s look at the ISS Top 10:

Sean Courturier, C
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C
Adam Larsson, D
Gabriel Landeskog, RW
Ryan Murphy, D
Joel Armia, RW
Victor Rask, C
Duncan Siemens, D
Brandon Saad, LW
Matt Puempel, LW

Of these, let’s look at forwards, where Ottawa is a little bit starved for the future:

Sean Courturier, C
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C
Gabriel Landeskog, RW
Joel Armia, RW
Victor Rask, C
Brandon Saad, LW
Matt Puempel, LW

Ottawa suckage and lottery luck will define how close to 1st Ottawa can go. Not sure if they can beat Jersey, Edmonton and the Islanders for the bottom, but it’s just like the Leafs and the Sabres to go on a pathetic end-of-season tear. So let’s place the Ottawa Senators at 26th with no changes due to the lottery, as per usual.  Since they have traded their pick to Boston the Leafs have no incentive to suck.  Buffalo of course is a suckage wildcard, as always. But let’s assume 26th.

Courturier is likely a first or second pick, a classic Islanders choice. Gone. Adam Larsson plays D, and is a perfect fit for New Jersey. Gone. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, an Alberta WHL boy, is too tempting for Edmonton to pass up.

It means that either Gabriel Landeskog,  or Victor Rask could end up in an Ottawa Senators uniform.

Of these, my bet is that it will be, should be, must be Gabriel Landeskog.

This is Elite Prospects’s take:

“An offensively skilled talent with good speed, technique and eye for the game. Likes to carry the puck a lot and finish himself. Could sometimes pass the puck a little earlier. Fairly well-rounded. Very strong. Loves to hit people.“

Uh huh. Any further questions?

 

30/50 vs 25/50

This page from  www.playoffstatus.com shows what’s what.  The Senators need to win 30 of 50 if they expect (a 94% chance or greater) to make the playoffs.  If they fall five short and win 25 of 50 their chances of making the playoffs falls to a tiny 9%.

Five games.  That’s it.  Given how they’ve played, what  do you expect to happen?

 

Don’t re-sign the expiring contracts

A short sweet table of farewells:

Kovalev, Alexei »	$5,000,000
Ruutu, Jarkko »	$1,300,000
Shannon, Ryan »	$625,000
Phillips, Chris »	$3,500,000
Campoli, Chris »	$1,400,000
Leclaire, Pascal »	$3,800,000
Elliott, Brian »	$850,000
Total:	$16,475,000

 

Some of the players are inexpensive RFA’s (Shannon, Elliot).  Some are grinders and pests (Campoli, Ruutu), and one has a long history  with the team (Chris Phillips and arguably Brian Elliot). All one-way contracts must be on the table, including Brian Elliot.  Let’s give it a look after the jump:

 

A look back at the 1994 NHL Draft

Behold all the picks from the 1994 NHL draft  that have played one NHL game:  Who has played the most?

Daniel Alfredsson.

Which teams did best? Detroit, San Jose,  New Jersey and Ottawa, in that order.

Of these teams, which has not won a Stanley Cup in the meantime?

The one that is in that list by accident.

Who was coach and GM in Detroit?  Bryan Murray. The team had mixed results in each of his four seasons.

Long list after the jump…

 

Retweet

Senturion #sensrebuild #sensrebuild #sensrebuild #sensrebuild #sensrebuild #sensrebuild #sensrebuild #sensrebuild #sensrebuild #sensrebuild #Sens

from Katimavik – Hazeldean, Ottawa

BTW:  Erik Karlsson, Natalie Portman. Separated at Birth?

 

On The Future Of Ottawa Senators Scouting

Behold the Ottawa Senators Scouting Organization,

My opinion on same after the jump.

European scout

Vaclav Burda is chief European scout, who puts on the most miles. According to LinkedIn, he’s an Independent Sports Professional, a consultant.

George Fargher

Amateur Scout

George Fargher is responsible for amateur scouting for western Canada.

Archie Henderson

Professional Scout

Archie played for the Washington Capitals, Minnesota North Stars, and Hartford Whalers. but spent most of his time in the AHL. Check out his fight with Bob Probert on Youtube. Archie scouts professional talent, at the NHL and AHL level. The likes of Matt Carkner arise from the work of Archie.

Bob Janecyk

Amateur Scout

Goalie scout. Born 1957. I still remember his time with the Kings.

Greg Royce

Amateur Scout

Covers the OHL, some WHL and QMJHL. A longtime scout for Phoenix. One of the younger North American scouts.

Trent Mann

Amateur Scout

Quebec League, primarily Maritimes.

Bob Lowes

Amateur Scout

Western Hockey League, primarily in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Occasionally European scouting. Relatively new.

Jim Clark

Professional Scout

Jim spent nine seasons with the Columbus Blue Jackets organization. He’s likely one of the guys in the stands scouting CBJ folks.

Anders Forsberg

Amateur Scout

Via The Sens Forum:

“Bryan Murray, of course, was general manager of the Detroit Red Wings in the early 90s. During this time he worked with Detroit’s legendary European scout Hakan Andersson.

For those of you who don’t know who Hakan Andersson is, I must digress, he is one of the greatest, and certainly the most celebrated NHL amateur scout of all time. He is giving much or all of the credit for Detroit drafting Nicklas Lidstrom, Tomas Holmstrom, Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen and Ville Leino, to name a few. I remember reading a story in a Sports Illustrated not too long ago about the 89 draft, when Andersson was just a no-name scout looking to make a name for himself and get into the business, he went the first two rounds trying to convince Jim Devallano to take a chance on a Swedish defenseman named Nicklas Lidstrom, but to no avail (this was back when drafting any European was considered high-risk). finally, by the third round, Andersson was practically begging Detroit’s GM and chief scout to pick him, and they finally did.

So during his time as GM, Bryan Murray developed a personal relationship with Andersson and they are still friends to this day. In early 2008, Andersson’s friend Anders Forsberg was looking for a job, Andersson and Forsberg worked together in Sweden for the past decade. So Andersson recommended to Murray to hire Forsberg.

In the 2008 draft Forsberg was instrumental in convincing Murray to draft Erik Karlsson in the first round and likely played a large part in the drafting of 2 more Swedes in that draft, Andre Petersson and Emil Sandin as well as two more Swedes in the 2009 draft, Jakob Silfverberg and Robin Lehner in the second round.”

Bill McCarthy

Amateur Scout

A part time scout, based in Minneapolis. Primarily US high schools in the upper midwest.

Lewis Mongelluzzo

Amateur Scout

NCAA recruiting.

Nick Polano

Professional Scout

Part time scout. Pushing 70.

Mikko Ruutu

Finnish Scout

Jarko’s older brother, now the Senator’s Finnish scout.

 

Bryan Murray & The Ottawa Senators

Graeme at the 6th Sens wants Bryan and Tim Murray’s heads on a platter…

“Tough decisions have to be made and they’re ones that I no longer entrust to Bryan or Tim Murray (the likely incumbent GM once Bryan steps down). Given Bryan’s contract status, the bias that he developed for these players when he coached them and his perpetual ability to make reactive transactions, I no longer have the faith in the current brain trust to do the right thing. Even when this team is winning and things are going well, most fans that I know are guilty of waiting for the other shoe to drop. We’ve grown wary of these guys.

via If Bryan Murray Gets Turfed… | November.”

While I understand his point of view,  Graeme makes the mistake of  assuming the muddling tinkering with what you have position comes from General Manager Bryan Murray and not  from owner Eugene Melnyk himself. I’ve worked at the Tim Murray level in various companies,  and have been frustrated  by ownership from making real changes due to the need to deliver product with limited resources right here, right now.  There is nothing more dangerous than an owner who thinks he knows what he’s doing. and nothing kills the future more than the desire to deliver today.  Eugene Melnyk  strikes me as a very involved owner,  one who wants to put product on the ice and bums in the seats. A corporate guy doesn’t look three or four years down the road. Such folk look at the next couple of quarters and the current cash flow. It’s all about paying the bills.

The question really becomes: Can the Ottawa Senators survive as a business taking an LA Kings kind of approach?  Is Eugene Melnyk willing to take his lumps as the team rebuilds?  Are the fans willing to buy tickets and fill a stadium for a rebuilding team?

If it was a US city, I’d say ‘yes’, because hockey is viewed as entertainment there, not  as being cultural. Fans notice either deep runs or nothing. Ottawa has some of the Leafs/Habs disease, fans want a winner, and are less willing to make the drive to Kanata to see a team get shellacked for the years needed to rebuild.  Garrioch and Brennan stir up the fan base.  Leafs media sets the tone for behavior with the hockey equivalent of “next year in Jerusalem.”   It infects the media here as well.

The problem is deep and  endemic. Fans, media, team management and ownership have a role in the problem, and have a role in the solution. The lot has to do a lot of growing up,  the first group being the fans, who need to exhibit realistic expectations.

I suspect that it will be us bloggers who have to be grown up about it first.  You’re not going to get it from people who want to sell newspaper ad space.  It will be very hard to get it from team management selling product, until such time that the product they are selling is change.

Change of that magnitude can only come from ownership, and I’m not sure that ownership is ready. Until that happens you can have the secret  spawn of Steve Yzerman and  Scotty Bowman as GM with the result being a hill of beans.