The Senators have 40 points in 46 games. Edmonton and the Islanders have 35 points but have played 3 fewer games. Unless New Jersey goes on an epic tear they are heading for last place and first pick with 27 points in 44 games.
If the Leafs are buyers for a playoff run, ahem, then it leaves the Senators as challengers for the number 2 pick.
What are the chances of the Senators finishing 29th? Higher than ever, especially if they dump talent before the deadline, which the in-rebuild teams are less able to do because the talent they have they want to keep.
**Update: Currently that chance stands at 40%. No longer unlikely.