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If there is a market bubble, SELL!!!

04 Jan
A Different Kind Of Hockey Bubble

A Different Kind Of Hockey Bubble

Jeremy Milks at Black Aces suggests that Ottawa not trade Filip Kuba or Sergei Gonchar, as they are both playing well and would be needed during any playoff run.  I agree, but only to a point.

Both players are having vastly improved years. You could say that the surprise year the Ottawa Senators are having are in part due to their improved play and leadership amongst the youngsters.  Then again, that makes them far more valuable.  Ottawa Senators players, playing well, are worth more than rejects from Columbus,  Anaheim, or Montreal, precisely because the Senators are over-achieving.

Given that, if I were Bryan Murray,  I’d sit back and wait to see if market inflation takes affect.  If the bottom-feeders over-price the market then imagine the price that players from a surprise team might.  A bubble economy might happen this February, especially given the jumble salad that is the standings, and the mixed expectations of fans.

Then again, it might not.  If it doesn’t, the choice is easy.  Roll with what you have.

But what if other teams come knocking willing to pay prices right out of the 1997 Florida condo market? What price would be right to pluck which player?  And which player should the team be willing to part with?

Some tough questions, sure, but not THAT tough.

So let’s sort by player, age, likely team, and price.

Daniel Alfredsson:  39.  Vancouver Canucks.  A 1st round pick in 2013, a conditional 2nd round pick in 2014, plus a salary dump.

Why would the Canucks want this?

  • Alfredsson is playing like a much younger man.  I mean, just watch him.
  • He’ll be the much-needed responsible adult in the Vancouver dressing room. That’s why.
  • The Canucks need a natural right-winger adult enough to let the Sedin boys take the credit.
  • Detroit has all the rest of the adults in the Western Conference and they’re not selling.
  • Whatever Brian Burke is drinking regarding draft picks is still in the Executive Suite bar.
Why would the Sens do this?
  • If they win The Cup that 2nd round pick becomes a 1st rounder just as the Canucks face-plant.
  • Alfie gets a chance at a cup, guilt-free, as a cup results in better spoils for Ottawa.

Why shouldn’t this happen?

  • The Vancouver Canucks are even more annoying than the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Why won’t this happen?

  • Eugene Melnyk views  salary dumps the same way he views securities commissions.
  • The CBC would veto this with all their might and fury as it might give Don Cherry an aneurism on-air
  • Vancouver real estate values can only go so far.
  • Bryan Murray can’t bear to make Baby Jesus cry.

Sergei Gonchar:  37.  Philadelphia Flyers.  2nd Round Pick in 2012.  Conditional 2nd round pick in 2013.   Conditional 2nd round pick 2014.

  • Why would the Flyers want this?
  • Nothing replaces Chris Pronger. But a top-of-form Sergei Gonchar would slide nicely next to Andrej Meszaros and make for a goal-chilling D.  Just the kind of team to take on Vancouver.

Why would the Sens want this?

  • If the Flyers win the cup, it’s three 2nd round picks. Otherwise it’s two.
  • As we have seen with other picks once you get past the first six it’s not by weight it’s by volume.

Why shouldn’t this happen?

  • Imagine Vancouver’s conditional pick fighting against Philadelphia’s conditional pick.

Why won’t this happen?

  • Bryan tries to undo the Andrej Meszaros error and overshoots. Might be worth trying.

Filip Kuba: 35:  See above, but only 1 2nd round pick.  

Milan Michalek:  27:  Minnesota Wild. Prospect Johan Gustaffson. 1st round pick in 2013. 2nd round pick 2014.  

Why would The Wild want this?

  • They have a fantastic goals-against. However, their goals for is slightly better than Columbus.
  • They need to win a playoff round this year. Now.  Now now now.
  • Did I mention goals?

Why would the Senators want this?

  • Because one élite Swedish goaltending prospect in never enough.
  • Because the other option for 1st round picks involves one of OUR Swedes.
  • Goaltending. Goaltending. Goaltending.

Why shouldn’t it happen?

  • Anything that helps Dany Heatley score goals sucks.

Why won’t it happen?

  • The Senators might want MM for the long run.

Any other suggestions?

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Posted by on January 4, 2012 in Senators

 

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